France is on course for major instability

Significance Opinion polls put the far-right National Rally (RN) in the lead, followed by the left-wing Popular Movement bloc and Macron’s centrist alliance in third, suggesting that Macron will lose control of French domestic policy. Impacts There can be no new legislative elections for at least a year if there is a hung parliament. Political instability and the prospect of policy paralysis will deter foreign investment. Tensions between France and the EU are likely to increase as the far right blames Brussels for imposing fiscal constraints.