Morena triumph in Mexico will drive market uneasiness

Significance Sheinbaum looks set to continue the economic policies of departing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The electoral triumph has made feasible a constitutional overhaul championed by AMLO, causing market jitters. Impacts Foreign investors will probably adopt a wait-and-see attitude until Sheinbaum’s agenda and priorities become clear. Sheinbaum will be torn between boosting oil production and refining, like AMLO, and pushing a green transition -- one of her stated goals. Further peso depreciations will occur if, as looks likely, AMLO maintains his plans to overhaul the constitution and Supreme Court.