UK election could be existential for ruling party

Significance It is trailing the opposition Labour Party by an average of 20 percentage points (pp) and its prospects have been further damaged by the decision of Nigel Farage to contest the election as leader of the right-wing populist Reform UK. The election outcome will have a major bearing on the party's future direction. Impacts The margin of a Labour victory would have a significant impact on the party’s ability to strengthen cooperation with the EU. Labour is expected to abolish the Rwanda asylum policy, but will nonetheless adopt a cautious approach regarding immigration. A poor result for Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party could result in a more right-wing, Eurosceptic leadership.