Analysis of spatial patterns and influencing factors of farmland transfer in China based on ESDA-GeoDetector

Abstract Farmland transfer is a critical component in facilitating agricultural scale management and improving agricultural production efficiency. This study examines the spatial distribution of farmland transfer in China and identifies the factors influencing it, offering valuable guidance for advancing China’s farmland transfer practices. Through the application of mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis, the study investigates changes in spatial patterns related to the scale, rate, mode, and recipients of farmland transfer across China's 30 provinces from 2015 to 2020. Geographical detectors are also employed to identify the key factors influencing the extent and pace of farmland transfer. The study reveals that between 2015 and 2020, China's farmland transfer area increased from 29,789 to 37,638 million hectares. Provinces with abundant farmland resources generally experienced larger farmland transfers, while economically developed regions and major grain-producing areas saw higher rates of farmland transfers. The predominant mode of farmland transfer in China was leasing (subcontracting), accounting for over 80% of the total transferred area. Large-scale grain growers and family farms were significant participants in farmland transfers, acquiring approximately 60.1% of the transferred lands, followed by professional cooperatives (21.5%), enterprises (10.4%), and other entities (7.9%). Key factors influencing the farmland transfer area include the "regional farmland area", the "proportion of family farms supported by loans", and the "proportion of non-agricultural population", with explanatory powers of 0.663, 0.319, and 0.225, respectively. Notably, there is a substantial interaction between the "regional farmland area" and factors such as the "proportion of family farms supported by loans" and the "grain yield per unit area", with explanatory powers reaching 0.957 and 0.901, respectively. These findings offer valuable insights for promoting farmland transfer in agriculturally rich regions. Factors affecting the farmland transfer rate include "grain yield per unit area", "GDP per capita", and the "proportion of non-agricultural population", each with an explanatory power above 0.500. Moreover, their interactive explanatory powers with other indicators exceed 0.600, indicating that provinces with high agricultural productivity or economic development levels are more likely to undergo farmland transfer. The paper concludes by proposing strategies and recommendations to promote farmland transfer in both "large agricultural areas" and "metropolitan suburbs."