Iraq's militias will move to consolidate power

Significance The militias have targeted Israel but largely avoided targeting US bases, for fear of Washington's retaliation and to reduce tensions with their own government. The attacks on Israel have mostly failed. Impacts Israel may be drawn into striking the militias in Iraq if they keep up their elevated level of attacks. Iran-backed militias may accept a very slow reduction of US forces in Iraq. Militia state capture of key institutions, including the oil sector, will accelerate. The facade of militia unity may crack during and after the October 2025 elections, resulting in a levelling of power among militias.