Spatiotemporal dynamic evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions: evidence from Jiangsu Province, China

Land use/cover change has an important impact on global climate change and carbon cycle, and it has become another major source of carbon emission after energy consumption. Therefore, this study focuses on the main line of “land use carbon emissions-spatial and temporal patterns-influencing factors,” and selects 13 cities in Jiangsu Province as the research object. Based on the data of land use and energy consumption, combined with the method of land use carbon emissions and ArcGIS technology, this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province. The factors affecting the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from land use in Jiangsu Province were discussed by using Geographic detector. The results show that: 1) Carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province showed an overall growth trend, from 16215.44 ×104tC in 2010–23597.68 ×104tC in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 4.55%, of which the construction land and watersheds had a greater impact on carbon sources and sinks, respectively. 2) During the period, there were significant differences in carbon emission levels among different cities in Jiangsu Province, and the land use carbon emission in Jiangsu Province showed a stable spatial pattern of “northwest—southeast.” The southern part of Jiangsu is always the hot area of carbon emission, while the cold spot area is mainly distributed in the northern and central parts of Jiangsu. 3) The interaction of factors such as economic development, industrial structure, energy intensity, land use and human activities is an important reason for the spatio-temporal differences of land use carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province. Among them, the level of urbanization, population size and economic aggregate have significant effects on carbon emissions.