Beetaloo or bust: the route to commercial success for an Australian shale play

There is a huge unconventional shale gas resource in the remote heart of the Northern Territory with the potential to trigger big new gas developments in Darwin, including export liquefied natural gas (LNG), and underpin the chronically undersupplied East Coast market. And yet despite this promise, the Beetaloo is not universally viewed as a viable commercial project. Nonetheless, the Beetaloo is one of the hottest topics in Australia’s upstream sector, and two of its key operators, Tamboran and Empire, are closing in on final investment decision (FID) for initial gas production. So why are many in the market still sceptical the play will work? To create a definitive answer, we investigate the key factors required to make the Beetaloo commercially viable. We will evaluate what a Beetaloo gas project could look like across a range of resource sizes, estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from analogue production profiles, and well costs. The work aims to understand the key cost barriers and price hurdles that need to be broached for economic success. From here we can determine the full range of economic pitfalls and potential rewards that lie in wait for ambitious Beetaloo operators.