Local Watershed Properties Cannot Explain Divergent Dynamics of Pacific Herring in an Urbanizing Estuary

Abstract Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ) is a foundational species in Puget Sound (Washington State, U.S.A.) and is subject to many anthropogenic threats. We assessed the overall status of the Puget Sound Pacific herring sub-stock complex and asked whether watersheds with less urban or agricultural land cover, less impervious surface, and lower human density were associated with better stock status. To this end, we developed multiple metrics of sub-stock population status; characterized watershed properties with respect to land use/land cover, percent impervious surfaces, and human density; and used statistical model selection to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of our hypotheses. Overall, the status of sub-stocks was poor; metrics for most sub-stocks indicate a decline from 1996–2021. However, the status metrics of sub-stocks were not related to recent (2016) watershed characteristics or the rate of change in watershed characteristics from the mid-1990s to 2016. While the cumulative effects of local human land use throughout Puget Sound may be contributing to the deterioration of spawning biomass, these results also suggest that other drivers that operate at larger scales (e.g., predation, disease, climate) are likely important.