Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy

Following Rouhani's victory in the 2013 presidential elections, Iran's foreign policy (IFP) underwent significant changes after more than a decade under Ahmadinejad. To date, only a few academic studies have attempted to incorporate a specific individual-level theory into their respective analyses, even though a large body of literature contends that leadership change is the decisive factor regarding the differences in Iran's policy toward the US and the EU. This study analyzes the leadership styles of Ahmadinejad and Rouhani to reveal the possible impact of decision-maker personalities on foreign policy, and to develop an account on the moderation in IFP. Accordingly, it asks, “How does leadership style influence IFP toward the 'Western world'?” Theoretically, the study benefits from Hermann’s ‘Leadership Trait Analysis’ to investigate the impact of leaders’ personalities on the foreign policy behavior of states. Empirically, it analyzes both presidents’ spontaneously given responses to interviews and in press conferences, which were randomly selected. Methodologically, the study utilizes the Profiler Plus software to assess individual traits of leaders. Interpreting leadership trait scores of two presidents, the study concludes that certain leadership features allow the construction of foreign policies that are more moderate.