Forecasting the development indicators of oil and gas reservoirs based on initial period data

The practice of oil fields development indicates that the economic efficiency of this process is largely determined by the oil production regime, which is characterized by indicators of the intensity of hydrocarbon extraction: the total number of wells in the field, the dynamics of their commissioning, and production volumes from each of them. At the same time, when justifying oil production projects, it is a very common opinion that it is premature to address the problems of managing the rate of raw material selection in the early stages of project development, often relegated solely to petroleum engineering without consideration of economic aspects. This often leads to a decrease in the efficiency of the entire project due to the inability to control the oil production regime in later stages. This formulation of the problem is particularly relevant for new oil production regions. In well-studied oil and gas region, an error in selecting the rate of raw material production may not be so critical. However, in the case of new fields in undeveloped regions, the cost of such an error can significantly exceed the economic benefits derived from the sale of all the oil produced. In this regard, the problem of developing models and methods for determining economically feasible regimes for oil field development based on controlling the rate of product selection is relevant. The article predicts the dynamics of the following indicators of oil and gas field development: current and cumulative production of oil, water and gas, average well flow rate, and water cut depending on the number of production wells, etc. It demonstrates how it is possible to simplify two- and three-parameter models using the proposed forecasting technique.