Measurable residual disease monitoring by ddPCR in the early posttransplant period complements the traditional MFC method to predict relapse after HSCT in AML/MDS: a multicenter retrospective study

Abstract Background Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) is widely applied to monitor measurable residual disease (MRD). However, there are limited studies on the feasibility of ddPCR-MRD monitoring after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), especially targeting multiple molecular markers simultaneously. Methods Our study collected samples from patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) in complete remission after allo-HSCT between January 2018 and August 2021 to evaluate whether posttransplant ddPCR-MRD monitoring can identify patients at high risk of relapse. Results Of 152 patients, 58 (38.2%) were MRD positive by ddPCR within 4 months posttransplant, with a median variant allele frequency of 0.198%. The detectable DTA mutations ( DNMT3A , TET2 , and ASXL1 mutations) after allo-HSCT were not associated with an increased risk of relapse. After excluding DTA mutations, patients with ddPCR-MRD positivity had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR, 38.7% vs. 9.7%, P < 0.001) and lower rates of relapse-free survival (RFS, 55.5% vs. 83.7%, P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, 60.5% vs. 90.5%, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, ddPCR-MRD positivity of non- DTA genes was an independent adverse predictor for CIR (hazard ratio HR, 4.02; P < 0.001), RFS (HR, 2.92; P = 0.002) and OS (HR, 3.12; P = 0.007). Moreover, the combination of ddPCR with multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) can further accurately identify patients at high risk of relapse (F+/M+, HR, 22.44; P < 0.001, F+/M-, HR, 12.46; P < 0.001 and F-/M+, HR, 4.51; P = 0.003). Conclusion ddPCR-MRD is a feasible approach to predict relapse after allo-HSCT in AML/MDS patients with non- DTA genes and is more accurate when combined with MFC. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT06000306. Registered 17 August 2023 –Retrospectively registered ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06000306?term=NCT06000306&rank=1 ).