A machine learning based method for parametric environmental impact model for electric vehicles

Environmental managers attempt to increasingly incorporate precautionary principles into decision making. The literature lacks Machine Learning -based approaches for forewarning lifecycle environmental impacts. This paper proposes a method to support electric vehicle design. The main innovation of the work lays in merging Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Machine Learning foundations to provide support and awareness to designers. The present approach overcomes the present literature because it provides a method for the design phase, is based on a well-established methodology (LCA) and provides quantitative results from little inputs. The approach exploits machine Learning Methods to develop models with the design features of a generic electric vehicle (such as vehicle mass and distance traveled) in six phases (Problem definition; Data collection; Data Preparation; Modelling; Model evaluation; Model interpretation). Differently from existing environmental analyses, all stages of the product life cycle have been considered in building the database; moreover, the model provides quantitative results. Regression models and supervised algorithms were used. The obtained model can be used by product engineers, as well as those not experts on LCA. Moreover, the model guarantees the database and hypothesis's uniqueness, ensuring the results coherence and comparability. The level of accuracy obtained in the case study (error or 17%) is comparable with studies handling full environmental analysis (that should be more accurate), and outstanding, as the present case is for the design phase. Future works will focus on additional significative indicators, similar electric vehicle design and integration with prospective LCA approaches.