Within-Year Stability and Changes in Adolescents’ Cross-Domain Motivational Profiles: Predictions on Academic Achievement and Educational Choices

Supporting propositions of the Situated Expectancy-Value Theory, abundant research has shown academic motivation to predict students’ school achievement and choices. Less explored, however, are individual differences in motivational dynamics, which may offer further perspectives on the formation of educational pathways. This study aimed at elucidating how stability and change in adolescents’ cross-domain motivational profiles within the last year of basic education are connected with their background, final grades, and the selection of general vs. vocational upper secondary school programmes.A nationally representative sample of Finnish students (N = 1,590, Mage = 14.8 years, 53% girls) reported motivation (self-concept; intrinsic, attainment, and utility value; cost) for math and language arts twice during the academic year. Grades and the chosen educational programme were derived from national registers. Data were analyzed using latent profile and transition analyses.We identified five motivational profiles in both semesters. Adjusted (overall moderate motivation; 33% at T1 / 33% at T2), Highly motivated (overall high motivation; 23% / 26%) and Unattached (overall low motivation; 20% / 14%) were characterized by similar motivation for the two subjects, Math-motivated (13% / 16%) and Language-motivated (11% / 12%) by differentiated patterns. Expectedly, Highly motivated received the highest grades and were most likely to opt for general programmes. Unattached, in turn, were prone to motivational changes. While gender and prior achievement predicted profile memberships and changes to a considerable extent, motivational shifts had unique value in predicting both grades and educational choices prior to a crucial educational transition.