Navigating uncertainty: The role of perceived risks in supporting sustainable tourism development in low-density territories

We are increasingly confronted with external factors that affect or promote sustainable tourism development. The pandemic triggered by COVID-19 has shown that to effectively manage uncertainty, it is essential to include perceived risk as a predictor variable. This study analyses residents′ support for sustainable tourism development in low-density territories and proposes a model that takes into account several known antecedents for this support (community attachment, community involvement, economic dependence, local government management of tourism, tourism impact) and gives relevance to the perception of risk, largely ignored in academic studies and from the residents′ perspective. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection, applied to a sample of 250 residents from Lamego-Portugal, a low-density territory. The data was analysed using the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results show that perceived risk (associated with COVID) significantly affects the perceived costs of tourism, but has no direct influence on residents′ support for sustainable tourism development. This support is positively affected by community involvement, economic dependence, local government management of tourism and perceived costs. The results also show that community involvement and local government management of tourism have a positive impact on perceived benefits. The results can help tourism professionals strengthen sustainable tourism development programmes.