Assessing Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change Through Dynamic Indexing Approach

Abstract The present study aims to enhance the methodology for assessing agricultural vulnerability in the context of climate change, focusing on the diverse districts of Odisha. Acknowledging that vulnerability is influenced by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, our research refines traditional assessment methods by incorporating the growth rate and instability of vital performance indicators to evaluate the relative vulnerability of each district. A key innovation of this approach is the use of normalized indicators, weighted in accordance with the proportional acreage of major crops in each district relative to the state, culminating in a comprehensive vulnerability index through the aggregation of these weighted components. Our findings reveal significant variability in the vulnerability profiles across districts within the same agro-climatic zones, thereby necessitating state-level intervention through tailored “Location Performance Vulnerability” based adaptation strategies. These strategies, including early weather warning systems, development of new and early maturing crop varieties, and adjustment of crop planting dates, are crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. The study's methodology and findings offer significant contributions to the field, providing policymakers and stakeholders with a district-specific framework for climate change adaptation. This approach is especially relevant for the international academic and policy-making communities, as it highlights the importance of localized adaptation strategies in the broader context of global climate change resilience. JEL Classification: Q54, Q1