A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis

Background/Aims: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily.Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC.Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient.Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC.Methods: Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China.Results: Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60).The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval CI, 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group.The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups.The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness. Conclusions:The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices.(Gut Liver,