An analytical method for quantifying the flexibility potential of decentralised energy systems

In this study, we developed a technology-independent method for quantifying the time-varying flexibility potential of different energy systems. As the flexibility of these systems was assumed to be an additional service, their primary application must not be undermined by flexibility provision; for example, providing flexibility from a heat pump must not threaten the space heating of a building. Therefore, the method developed for quantifying flexibility contains an estimation of the technology- and schedule-specific boundaries that consider the primary application of the energy systems. The time-varying flexibility potential of energy systems was proposed to be presented in a universal, two-dimensional, and technologically-agnostic form. It enabled to develop a method for aggregating the flexibility values from different energy systems. The developed methods were demonstrated on two case studies: the first included a calculation of the flexibility potential of a single battery storage (BS) system in a private household, and the second presented aggregation of the flexibility from multiple BS systems. The simulation proved that these BS systems could have provided flexibility additionally to their operation in compliance with the boundary values. In both case studies, the BS systems exhibited significant daily and seasonal variations in flexibility potential depending on the actual mode, operation in the following hours, local energy generation, and consumption. In general, the developed methods can be utilised to quantify and aggregate the time-varying flexibility potentials of energy systems, alongside their scheduled operation in the course of a single day as well as across seasons.