Runoff Simulation of the Upstream Watershed of the Feiling Hydrological Station in the Qinhe River Based on the SWAT Model

This study examined the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff within the Feiling Hydrological Station watershed in the Qinhe River basin, utilizing the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Several climate change and extreme land-use scenarios were evaluated for their effects on runoff. Results demonstrated the SWAT model’s suitability for runoff simulation in the watershed, revealing a negative correlation between runoff and temperature changes, and a positive correlation with precipitation changes. Significantly, runoff responses to precipitation variations of ±10% and ±20% were more marked than those to temperature changes of ±1 °C and ±2 °C. In scenarios of extreme woodland and fallow land, runoff decreased, whereas in scenarios of extreme cropland and grassland, it increased, particularly in the extreme farmland scenario. The study’s findings are important for the sensible management of soil and water resources and the enhancement of the natural environment in the studied area.