The competitiveness of South African table grape exports in the European markets: Threats from Peru and Chile

International trade in table grapes is expanding rapidly, with Peru overtaking South Africa as the second-largest exporter from the Southern Hemisphere behind Chile. The primary objective of the study was to the determine whether South Africa, with 75% of its exports destined for Europe, will be negatively affected by changes in Peru and Chile's export orientation. This question is addressed by breaking it down into four key factors. The first is the role of policy by applying Anderson et al.'s (2006) empirical framework of nominal rate of assistance (NRA) followed by measures of competitiveness, namely relative trade advantage (RTA), normalised revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) and the logarithmic relative export advantage (InRXA). The last two measures – indirect freight cost and trade barriers - zoom in on trade from one country to a specific destination. The results and discussion highlight that Peru, operating in close to a zero-distorted environment, has the potential to increase its competitiveness in the global table grape market. Whilst South Africa's table grape exporters also have this potential, given the advantages of a depreciating rand, broader and more favourable market access outside the EU and UK is paramount.