Deeply divided along aid lines? Chinese loans, Cameroon and Anglophone marginalisation

Chinese development financial assistance goes into Africa mainly as loans but little is known about recipient sub-national distributive patterns, despite the potential of uneven allocations for inequitable development and conflict outcomes. Focusing on Cameroon, which is among the largest recipients of Chinese loans and is challenged by secessionist unrest, we explore if sub-state allocations favour the president's birth region. We geo-locate Chinese loan-funded projects in Cameroon from open sources, fieldwork observations, and reviews of Sino-Cameroon agreements, and conduct interviews to gauge the influence of selected projects on voting in Cameroon's 2018 presidential elections. We find evidence of more Chinese loan-funded projects reaching the president's birth region and motivating pro-incumbent votes. Conversely, we find less Chinese loan-sponsored projects in the secessionist Anglophone regions, providing an empirical basis for proposing adjustments to the geopolitical configuration of Chinese development assistance to Cameroon for more equitable and auspicious outcomes.