Spatial differences, distribution dynamics and driving factors of the synergy between marine ecological security and high-quality development in three major marine economic circles of China

Introduction In China, the sustainable development of the marine is facing a prominent contradiction between ecological security and economic development, as well as unbalanced and non-coordinated regional development. Exploring the regional differences in the synergy between marine ecological security (MES) and high-quality development of the marine economy (MHQD) and its driving mechanism is the key to optimizing the spatial distribution of marine development, promoting the synergistic and balanced development of the regional marine composite system during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Methods In this article, we employed the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition model and Kernel density estimation methods to reveal the evolution of regional differences, sources, and distributional dynamics of synergistic development of the composite system from 2009 to 2020. Meanwhile, spatial econometric analyses were applied to identify the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects. Results The level of synergistic development of composite system has a fluctuating upward trend, with a significant positive spatial correlation and a significant “polarization effect”. Inter-regional differences in the synergistic development of the composite system are the main source of the overall differences. Factors such as innovation-driven, human capital, and opening up to the outside world are important driving factors for the synergistic development of the composite system. Discussion The MES-MHQD composite system exhibits a low level of synergistic development, with significant differences in the level of synergy both among the 3MMECs and within each circle. We infer that the expansion trend of overall difference will constrain the exploration of a sustainable development path for China’s coastal regions in the future. It is necessary to optimize the spatial layout of the composite system, establish robust mechanisms for regional cooperation and communication, accurately identify the development bottlenecks of the regional composite systems. This study provides a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the promotion of the synergistic development of the composite system of the Three Major Marine Economic Circles (3MMECs) in China.