Survival benefit of postoperative radioiodine therapy among patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma

Abstract Background The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines proposed the ATA Risk Stratification System and American Joint Committee on Cancer Tumor-Node-Metastasis (AJCC/TNM) Staging System for postoperative radioiodine decision-making. However, the management of patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is not well defined. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of radioactive iodine therapy (RAIT) among various subgroups of patients with intermediate-risk DTC after surgery. Methods This was a retrospective study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010–2015). The DTC patients with intermediate risk of recurrence were divided into two groups (treated or not treated with radioactive iodine (RAI)). As the treatment was not randomly assigned, stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting (sIPTW) was used to reduce selection bias. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to analyze overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Results Kaplan-Meier analysis after sIPTW found a significant difference in OS and CSS between no RAIT and RAIT (log-rank test, P < 0.0001; P = 0.0019, respectively). The Kaplan–Meier curves of CSS in age cutoff of 55 years showed a significant association (log-rank test, P = 0.0045). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression showed RAIT was associated with a reduced risk of mortality compared with no RAIT (hazard ratio HR 0.59, 95% confidence interval 95% CI 0.44–0.80), however age (≥ 55) years associated with worse CSS (HR 8.91, 95% confidence interval 95% CI 6.19–12.84). Conclusions RAIT improves OS and CSS in patients with intermediate-risk DTC after surgery. 55 years is a more appropriate prognostic age cutoff for the relevant classification systems and is a crucial consideration in RAI decision-making. Therefore, we need individualized treatment plans.