New Territory, Geographic Diffusion and Civilian Targeting

Existing research identifies several factors that shape civilian targeting, including competition between armed groups. However, the role diffusion into new territory – as opposed to continued presence in long-established areas – plays is relatively underexamined. This study addresses this through a territorial analysis of eight high-activity African rebel groups, using Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset data. It finds that groups are more likely to target civilians in new territory, and in areas with a proliferation of non-state armed actors. The study attributes this to competition and signalling incentives. This has implications for understanding civilian targeting and protection in territorially expanding conflicts.