Bosnia’s unresolved divisions will impede joining EU

Significance The Council declared Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) a potential EU member in June 2003, but withheld candidate status until end-2022. The 1995 Dayton peace agreement reconstituted BiH as a state, but with two separate regional ‘entities’ based on the warring sides, the Federation and Republika Srpska (RS). RS resistance to EU-required reforms is the main obstacle. Impacts The EU’s attractiveness is based largely on hopes that membership will be economically advantageous. Crucial US political support for keeping Bosnia together could weaken under an isolationist second Trump presidency. A Russian victory in Ukraine could bring more meddling in the Balkans.