EU arms collaboration, procurement, and offsets: the impact of the war in Ukraine

In the last twenty years, the EU has made increasingly greater efforts to boost defence cooperation among MS. To strengthen the EDTIB and avoid duplication of capabilities, the EU has encouraged "European preference" in arms procurement and MS' defence collaborative projects, also by seeking to expunge defence offsets from the single market. Against this backdrop, on 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. What impact has the war in Ukraine had on EU defence cooperation? Has the war impacted MS in a similar fashion or unevenly, reinforcing defence integration dynamics for some, while kickstarting disintegration for others? Two years on, a thorough analysis of the impact of the war on EU defence cooperation is still missing. This paper fills this gap by exploring three levels of analysis – arms collaboration, arms procurement, and offsets – and by comparing pre-invasion evidence with data from the post-invasion period. The analysis suggests that the Russo-Ukrainian war has negatively impacted EU defence cooperation, potentially increasing both fragmentation and non-EU dependencies. However, although MS' threat perception and their ability to reap industrial benefits remain important to explain EU defence cooperation, integration or disintegration dynamics do not neatly map onto the geographical or size divides identified by the literature.