Comprehensive evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

To clarify the connotations and extensions of urban resilience, this study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle with 16 cities as research subjects. A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to measure the resilience of each city from 2003 to 2020. The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed using Kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Markov chain analysis, and the spatial Tobit model was introduced to discover the influencing factors. The results indicate the following: ① Urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle displays an upward trend, with the center of gravity moving to the southwest, and the polarization phenomenon intensifying. ② The urban resilience level in a region has certain spatial and geographical dependence, while the probability of urban resilience transfer differs in adjacent cities with different resilience levels. ③ Urban centrality, economic scale, openness level, and financial development promote urban resilience, whereas government scale significantly inhibits it. Finally, this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the urban resilience of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.