The ternary water cycle of ‘nature–society–trade’ in the inland arid areas

Abstract Water cycle is important for maintaining the dynamic balance of regional water resources. Here, based on the input–output water circulation flux accounting model, we take Xinjiang as a case area to empirically explore the mechanism of the ‘nature‐society‐trade’ ternary water cycle. The results show that the water transferred out was much larger than the transferred in in Xinjiang. The scale of water resources development and utilization and the social water cycle fluxes have been constantly expanding, but there was a mismatch between the hydrological system and the socio‐economic system in terms of water resource utilization. From 2007 to 2017, agriculture had always been the department with the largest amount of direct water consumption and virtual water transfer in Xinjiang, which mainly transferred virtual water to the light industry and service sector where the production of final products requires large amounts of agricultural products as raw materials or intermediate products. In Xinjiang, the virtual water transferred outside through trade in products and services was much larger than the virtual water transferred in from other regions, and it was thus always in a state of net virtual water outflow as a whole. In inter‐provincial trade of China, Xinjiang mainly transferred virtual water to areas with abundant water resources, developed economies and dense populations in eastern China. Lastly, we put forward targeted suggestions on the optimal allocation of water resources to promote the sustainable development of Xinjiang and we hope that our study will be instructive for water resources management in other arid inland river basins.