Tehran will prioritise conservative consolidation

Significance Many centrist and reformist candidates have been disqualified or declined to stand. This, together with the poor state of the economy and resentment over money spent abroad on proxies in the context of the Gaza war, has heightened public apathy and opposition calls to boycott the polls. Impacts Western criticisms of the fairness of the electoral process will have little impact in Iran. President Ebrahim Raisi’s effort to use the polls to deflect attention from the troubled economy will likely fail. Popular demoralisation, poverty and lack of leadership will tend to sap enthusiasm for major protests.