The Huthis will grow more emboldened within Yemen

Significance These shifts were already underway before the airstrikes began in November 2023. Notably, factions within the Islamist Islah political party have publicly and privately expressed support for Huthi efforts targeting Israel-linked shipping. Now, support for the Huthis from former enemies seems to be growing and gaining momentum. Impacts The airstrikes, especially if they result in civilian casualties, will strengthen Huthi tribal engagement in areas outside their control. The Huthis will intensify Red Sea attacks if Israel moves forward with an offensive in Gaza’s Rafah area. Riyadh will prioritise continued engagement with Tehran to reduce risks of attacks against its territory from Yemen.