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Key points: 1) In 2023, the temperature of the global ocean was higher than usual, explaining the excess temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. 2) An announced El Niño event, predicted to be at least moderate, took place in 2023-24, but turned out to be weak. 3) The climate state of the tropical Pacific suggests that a strong or stronger El Niño peaking in the second half of 2024 is likely to occur.
Borzelli et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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