The study examined the growth performance and export patterns of oilseed crops in India, with a specific focus on soybean and mustard seed. The growth rate, balance of trade, and transitional probability matrix were used to analyze the study using the latest ten years of data (2015–2024) collected from various national and international sources. The findings showed that India’s oilseed sector grow steadily, supported by an increase in both the area under cultivation and overall production. Although soybean exports declined and resulted in a negative trade balance, mustard seed exports grew by 17.79 per cent and continued to show a positive trade surplus. The USA was the most stable market for Indian soybean with the highest retention capacity (90.00 per cent), while Malaysia exhibited the highest retention (100 per cent) for mustard seed. The study recommends that India strengthen trade relations with countries with high retention rates, such as the USA for soybeans and Malaysia for mustard seed, to improve its position in the global oilseed export market and support sustained growth in agricultural exports. Keywords: Export, import, Markov Chain, oilseeds, transitional probability matrix. JEL Codes: P45, Q13, Q17, R11.
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