Bangladesh’s Ship Recycling Industry in the Global South: Readiness, Regional Competition, and Reform Imperatives

The ship recycling industry in Bangladesh has transformed from informal, beaching-based operations into a globally significant sector, representing over 45% of global recycling tonnage and providing essential raw materials and employment opportunities. This study adopts a mixed-methods design, combining secondary data analysis (2014–2024 gross tonnage records), over 500 stakeholder interviews, and ARIMA-based scenario forecasting up to 2050. The findings indicate that the sector contributes approximately USD 2.1 billion annually to the national economy and supports more than 250,000 direct and indirect jobs. Despite its economic significance, major compliance gaps persist with the Hong Kong International Convention (HKC): only about 52% of yards are certified or in the process of certification. Workplace accident rates remain roughly 30% higher than regional averages, while environmental assessments reveal elevated heavy metal concentrations in soil and water, underscoring weak regulatory enforcement and environmental management. Comparative analysis shows that India has successfully modernized over 120 HKC-compliant yards through targeted policy and financial incentives, whereas Pakistan is rapidly upgrading its Gadani facilities through major investment programs. Forecasting results identify three trajectories: a baseline of ~2.7 million GT annually to 2050, an optimistic expansion to ~5 million GT with green reforms, and a pessimistic decline below 2 million GT if progress stagnates. To ensure sustainable advancement, five strategic policy pillars are proposed, offering an evidence-based roadmap for Bangladesh to achieve safe, environmentally sound, and globally competitive ship recycling.