During the early 2025/26 influenza season, influenza A(H3N2) subclade K rapidly predominated in Beijing, China. Using a test-negative design, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) among influenza-like illness outpatients tested between September and December 2025. Among 9,579 participants, sequencing of 316 randomly selected A(H3N2)-positive samples showed 84.8% were subclade K, and antigenic analysis of 65 viruses indicated antigenic divergence. Despite this, adjusted VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 41.3% (95% CI: 29.2 to 51.3), indicating moderate protection during this subclade K-dominated season.
Shen et al. (Thu,) studied this question.