Tropical cyclones typically weaken rapidly during poleward propagation due to decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear. Super Typhoon Oscar (1995) deviated from this pattern by maintaining Category-5 intensity at an anomalously high latitude. This study investigates the oceanic mechanisms driving this resilience by integrating satellite SST data with atmospheric (ERA5) and oceanic (HYCOM) reanalysis products. Our analysis shows that the storm track intersected a persistent marine heatwave (MHW) characterized by a deep thermal anomaly extending to approximately 150 m. This elevated heat content formed a strong stratification barrier at the base of the mixed layer (~32 m) that prevented the typical entrainment of cold thermocline water. Instead, storm-induced turbulence mixed warm subsurface water upward to effectively mitigate the negative cold-wake feedback. This process sustained extreme upward enthalpy fluxes exceeding 210 W m−2 and generated a regime of thermodynamic compensation that enabled the storm to maintain its structure despite an unfavorable atmospheric environment with moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear (15–20 m s−1). These results indicate that the three-dimensional ocean structure acts as a more reliable predictor of typhoon intensity than SST alone in regions affected by MHWs. As MHWs deepen under climate warming, this cold-wake mitigation mechanism is likely to become a significant factor influencing future high-latitude cyclone hazards.
Tian et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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