Abstract — The date and downstream impact of the Thera (Santorini) eruption remain contested, and many synchronization arguments risk circularity when Aegean datasets are used to date an Aegean event. This paper therefore runs a deliberately constrained cross-regional chronological alignment test using non-Aegean disruption windows to evaluate two competing intervals: an early band (1525–1575 BCE; 16th century BCE) and a late band (1175–1225 BCE; 13th century BCE). The study compiles externally attested crisis signals from four independent regions—Central Anatolia (Hittite sphere), the North Syrian coast/Ugarit corridor, Ramesside Egypt, and Cyprus (LC IIC–IIIA)—including destruction/cessation indicators, administrative breaks, and climate-stress proxies reported in regional chronologies. “Support” is defined as overlap with the tested band; non-overlap is treated as disconfirming evidence within this limited framework. Across all four regions, the compiled disruption windows intersect the 1175–1225 BCE band while showing no overlap with the 1525–1575 BCE band, indicating that a late-centered disruption interval offers a stronger synchronization fit for widely distributed stress signals associated with the Late Bronze Age collapse horizon. This is a downstream-effects synchronization test rather than a definitive eruption re-dating: mechanisms are noted but not adjudicated, and Aegean evidence is intentionally reserved for a separate, auditable follow-up to avoid debate overload and preserve falsifiability
Michael Grasa (Fri,) studied this question.
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