This study comparatively analyzes the effects of carbon pricing and incentive policies on the economic feasibility, quantified using the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of green hydrogen investments. A MATLAB-based simulation model was developed using a dataset based on 2025 projections for six countries/regions (the US, the EU, China, Japan/South Korea, Russia, and Türkiye). Model outputs show that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to increase the competitiveness of green hydrogen; however, when combined with production and investment incentives, it leads to a significant reduction in LCOH. The production incentive of up to USD 3/kg provided under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) stands out as the most effective policy tool for accelerating investments by reducing LCOH to USD 2/kg. In contrast, the EU’s high carbon pricing mechanism increases gray hydrogen costs but does not directly reduce costs. Scenarios conducted for Türkiye indicate that a combination of a USD 1/kg production incentive and a USD 25–30/tCO2 carbon price could reduce LCOH from USD 5–6/kg to USD 2.5–3/kg. The study emphasizes that the future of the green hydrogen economy will be shaped not only by technological progress but also by predictable and integrated policy design.
Mert Ökten (Fri,) studied this question.