Abstract This article seeks to explore elite perceptions of the US’ commitment to NATO in the leadup to the 2024 election. It presents findings from ninety-two interviews from 2023 and 2024 with policymakers and analysts from six leading NATO allies. Analysis of the interviews demonstrates that only roughly half of interviewees were concerned with the US’ future commitment to NATO. The bulk of the article seeks to make sense of the variety of responses by categorizing them according to five different worldviews. A domestic political worldview provides an explanation for why some elites were concerned with the prospect of Donald Trump’s reelection as president as he campaigned on criticisms of allies who he said “ripped off” the USA. In contrast, a realist worldview helps us make sense of elites who believe that the rise of China will compel the USA to lessen its engagement with Europe.
Jason W. Davidson (Sat,) studied this question.