Lagged relationships between winter rainfall over Australia and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies are examined. Forecasts of early winter (April to July) rainfall over parts of southern and eastern Australia appear to be feasible from summer to early autumn (December to March) using an index of sea-surface temperature anomalies in an area off the west Australian coast. Similar results are found with the anomalous pressure gradient between the west coast and central Indian Ocean, which serves as an approximation to the meridional component of the geo-strophic wind, and suggests that the sea-surface temperature and rainfall anomalies are forced by the anomalous atmospheric circulation.
Wasyl Drosdowsky (Mon,) studied this question.
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