Model output statistics (MOS) forecasts of daily maximum and minimum temperature are combined with Regional Forecast Centre (RFC) forecasts and 3 pm local observations to produce Local Forecast Equations (LFE) for daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. Testing of the LFE, using independent data, indicates that a substantial improvement on current operational accuracy can be achieved. Specifically, the number of errors exceeding 3°C in the operational forecasts of maximum temperatures can be reduced by about 30 per cent and of minimum temperatures by about 50 per cent. The improvement in the forecasts is mostly due to the inclusion of MOS forecasts in the LFE and partly due to the statistical correction of RFC forecasts. A change to current operational forecast strategy is suggested.
Woodcock et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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