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This research investigates the effectiveness of weather forecasts for critical elements like temperature and humidity, particularly for fire management.

February 5, 2026

A capability study of forecasts of maximum temperature, relative humidity, dew point, wind and precipitation in several states with special application to fire weather requirements

Puntos clave

This research investigates the effectiveness of weather forecasts for critical elements like temperature and humidity, particularly for fire management.
Analyzed forecasting capabilities at stations near important state forests: Coffs Harbour, Mount Burr, Wirrabara, and Dwellingup.
Examined both short-range (9-hour) and long-range (24-hour) forecasts for accuracy.
Evaluated forecasts for maximum temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation.
9-hour maximum temperature forecasts are generally more accurate than 24-hour forecasts.
A significant number of forecasts fail to predict high maximum temperatures of 90°F or more.
Forecasts for dew point and relative humidity require substantial improvement due to high inaccuracies.
Rain forecasts show a 24% occurrence of rain when none was predicted, particularly noted at Mount Burr.
Wind forecasts for Coffs Harbour are generally good, but direction errors are common when wind speeds exceed 16 mph.

Resumen

A study is made of the capability to forecast several of the elements, maximum temperature, dew point, relative humidity, precipitation, wind and thunderstorms for Coffs Harbour, Mount Burr, Wirrabara and Dwellingup. These stations adjoin or are located in important State forests. The fore-casting capability is studied with particular reference to forestry fire weather requirements. Maximum temperature forecasts are generally good and short range (9 hour) fore-caste are found to be more accurate than long range (24 hour) forecasts. A disturbingly high proportion of forecasts fail to predict accurately maximum temperature of 90°F or more. Forecasts of dew point and relative humidity need to be improved. A high percent-age of forecasts fail to predict low dew points and humidities accurately. The accuracy of 9 hour forecasts is little better than 24 hour forecasts, at one station the accuracy is worse. Rain and thunderstorm forecasts are not particularly accurate. On 24 per cent of occasionas when no rain was forecast for Mount Burr, rain fell at some time during the period of validity of the forecasts. Quantitative wind forecasts are analysed for Coffs Harbour only. The fore-casts are generally good but the wind direction is found to be inaccurate on 4 out of the 5 occasions when the wind speed exceeds 16 mph. The succeee of fire control measures depends on the capability to forecast accurately extremes of maximum temperature, dew point and relative humidity. The failure to do this is thought to be due to errors in prognosis, particularly incorrect predictiones of cyclogenesis. The requirement for improved techniques to forecaet dew point is emphasised.

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