Entrepreneurial ecosystem turbulence and innovation success: the role of analytical capacity

Purpose This study aims to investigate how entrepreneurial firms transform turbulence within their ecosystems, originating from clients, competitors and suppliers, into innovation success. Drawing on contingency theory, the study emphasizes analytical capacity as a key mediating mechanism. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 140 entrepreneurial manufacturing firms in Québec, drawn from the Centre de Recherche Industrielle du Québec database. Using the key informant approach, data were collected from chief executive officers, directors and senior managers. The research model was tested with partial least squares structural equation modeling and evaluated for predictive relevance and effect size to ensure the robustness of results. Findings The results reveal that entrepreneurial ecosystem turbulence (EET) positively influences innovation performance but only indirectly through analytical capacity. Entrepreneurial firms with stronger analytical capacity are more effective in capturing signals from clients, competitors and suppliers, which enables them to adapt their strategies and turn environmental disruptions into opportunities. The findings confirm that analytical capacity fully mediates the relationship between ecosystem turbulence and innovation outcomes, highlighting its central role as a dynamic capability in turbulent environments. Originality/value The study introduces EET as a second-order construct comprising client, competitor and supplier turbulence and demonstrates that analytical capacity functions as a contingent resource that aligns internal capabilities with external conditions. By adopting an informational perspective, the research advances entrepreneurship studies and shows how data analytics can transform turbulence into sustained innovation success.