Abstract Why some individuals vote while others abstain remains a central question in political behavior research, yet little is known about whether civic motivations formed during adolescence endure into adulthood. Drawing on expectancy–value theory, this study examines whether civic motivations in early adolescence (ages 13–16) including political efficacy, perceived political knowledge, political interest, and civic norms are associated with electoral participation in early adulthood (ages 26–29). Using a longitudinal dataset from Sweden, we show that civic norms are the strongest predictor of adult voting, even after accounting for prior participation, socioeconomic background, and immigrant origin. In contrast, expectancy‐based beliefs do not independently predict turnout, suggesting that value‐based motivations may have greater long‐term relevance for electoral participation. Sex‐specific analyses reveal clear differences. Among women, adult electoral participation is associated with a broader constellation of civic motivations, whereas men's participation is primarily predicted by prior voting and structural background factors. Immigrant origin strongly reduces participation for both male and female respondents, but the effect is more pronounced among women, consistent with intersectional disadvantage. Overall, the findings demonstrate that civic motivations held in adolescence have lasting implications for adult electoral participation and underscore the importance of gender‐sensitive, intersectional approaches to understanding political development.
Lundberg et al. (Sun,) studied this question.