This study deciphers the enduring cross-national divergence in University–Industry Collaboration (UIC) performance by developing and empirically validating a dual-architecture model of national innovation systems. The central finding—termed the “UIC Paradox”—reveals a structural disjunction: the institutional form of collaboration is embedded in Systemic Structural Capacity (F1), while its innovative outcomes derive from Relational Market Dynamism (F2). An Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) of 112 countries (2007–2019) confirms a robust orthogonal two-factor structure (r=0.00) explaining 100% of common variance. UIC loads predominantly on F1 (0.913), whereas patents and related innovation outputs load exclusively on F2 (0.965), empirically validating the phenomenon of “ceremonial collaboration”—form without function. Complementary Granger causality tests reveal a sequential innovation anatomy: UIC intensity predicts GDP growth at t+1 and unemployment reduction at t+2, reflecting distinct temporal mechanisms. The t+1 effect captures efficiency gains through structural activation (F1), while the t+2 effect reflects deeper market adaptation via relational capability (F2). The study contributes a diagnostic governance framework that operationalizes innovation orchestration through Dual-Metric Dashboards linking measurement, evaluation, and adaptive policy design. It provides a roadmap for transitional economies—such as Turkey—to escape the structural-relational imbalance that sustains low innovation elasticity despite extensive policy infrastructure.
Ahmet Yüzbaşıoğulları (Fri,) studied this question.