The integrated crop–livestock farming model not only enhances resource utilization efficiency and reduces environmental pollution but also serves as a vital pathway for promoting sustainable agricultural development. System dynamics models enable in-depth analysis of dynamic system changes. Therefore, in this study, we constructed a comprehensive system dynamics model for the combination of farming and raising in Jilin Province, and used Vensim-PLE software(Version 6.3) to simulate and predict the dynamic changes of the agricultural structure and the future development trend based on the data of the planting and raising industry from 2006 to 2021. The results of the study show that: (1) It is expected that by 2035, the grain crop production, cash crop production, hog and beef cattle output, as well as the utilization of straw and livestock and poultry manure in Jilin Province will increase significantly. And the livestock and poultry manure load warning value reaches 0.35, which does not pose a threat to the environment. (2) By setting the simulation structure optimization analysis, it is found that the integrated crop-livestock systems performs the best in terms of economic, social, ecological and environmental benefits. (3) In 2035, Jilin Province should control the total crop planting area within 7250 thousand hectares, the number of hog output should not exceed 25 million, and the number of beef cattle slaughtered should not exceed 4.25 million, so as to ensure that the early warning value of livestock and poultry fecal matter loading is lower than 0.4, and to achieve the balance of farming and maximize economic benefits. Finally, this paper proposes policy recommendations to optimize crop structures, develop precision farming and aquaculture technologies, establish resource recycling projects, and strengthen policy support and technology promotion.
Xia et al. (Sat,) studied this question.