Mexicali, capital of Baja California, has 1,049,792 inhabitants and lies in a high-seismic-hazard zone in northwestern Mexico, according to CENAPRED, the MDOC-CFE-2015 seismic regionalization, and the ASCE 7-22 “Hazard Toolkit”. This study develops a probabilistic seismic hazard map to estimate peak ground accelerations with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, using the OpenQuake platform. The study area coincides with the 2025 urban development plan polygon for the central population area defined by the Municipal Institute for Research and Urban Planning of Mexicali. The Imperial and Cerro Prieto faults, the Pescaderos–Indiviso fault system, and the Laguna Salada fault were modeled as seismic sources. Four PEER-NGA ground motion prediction equations and regional geophysical and geotechnical data were employed to characterize shear-wave velocity (Vs30). Design response spectra were generated for each grid point for the 21 periods specified in ASCE 7-22. A representative Vs30 of 236 m/s was obtained, and the a, b, and Mc parameters were derived for the seismic catalog. Resulting peak ground accelerations range from 0.842 g to 1.221 g, with a maximum spectral pseudo-acceleration of 2.23 g at 0.30 s.
Rodríguez et al. (Sun,) studied this question.