The further development of scalable fabrication for perovskite solar cells has been considerably constrained by strong process variability and the lack of a reliable real-time predictive mechanism during the thin-film formation process. Existing machine learning-based methods are incapable of capturing the inherent multi-stage kinetic characteristics and uncertainties of the perovskite crystallization process, as they rely on deterministic point prediction models and flatten time-series signals into static features, which necessitates more advanced modeling strategies. To address these challenges, an in situ process monitoring and predictive modeling framework based on a lightweight probabilistic Transformer is proposed for the scalable preparation of perovskite thin films. The strategically designed inputs, consisting of time-resolved photoluminescence (PL) and diffuse reflectance imaging signals acquired during the vacuum quenching process, enable the model to directly learn the conditional probability distribution of the final device performance metrics. Rather than producing a single predicted value, this method enables the explicit quantification of prediction uncertainty, providing statistical support for uncertainty-aware process assessment. Leveraging its advantages over feed-forward neural networks and traditional tree-based machine learning methods, the proposed Transformer architecture effectively captures the staged and non-stationary kinetic features of thin-film formation. Consequently, it exhibits higher robustness and superior uncertainty calibration capability during the early-stage prediction phase. The results demonstrate that the probabilistic Transformer-based modeling paradigm provides a viable pathway toward uncertainty-aware, data-driven process evaluation in perovskite manufacturing. This framework extends its application beyond perovskite photovoltaic device fabrication, providing a generalizable modeling strategy for real-time predictive assessment in the preparation of other complex materials governed by irreversible stochastic dynamics.
Li et al. (Sat,) studied this question.