This article presents a critical case study analysing the impact of halting timber harvesting in Germany’s public old beech forests, Fagus sylvatica, (170,000 ha, aged 140−160 years, timber stock 425−444 m3/ha, beech >75%) on carbon balance and climate mitigation. The segregation policy – separating protection from production – assumes these stands act as stable CO2 reservoirs, yet forest inventory data and literature reveal underestimation of risks from drought−induced mortality, pests, pathogens, windthrow, and natural deadwood decomposition that could transform forests into net carbon sources within decades. The methodology combines systematic literature synthesis on temperate beech carbon dynamics (sequestration rates, decay timescales, harvesting emissions, soil fluxes, product lifecycles), quantitative analysis of German and Polish national forest inventories (timber stocks, age structures, assortments), and comparative policy evaluation. Both nations manage ecologically similar beech ecosystems (F. sylvatica dominant, 7−9°C temperatures, 600−850 mm precipitation, Cambisols/ Luvisols), contrasting Germany’s non−intervention with Poland’s active management. Beech wood (density 680−720 kg/m3, diffuse−porous, machinable for peeling/bending) substitutes high−emission materials: 1 m3 sequesters 1281 kg CO2 while displacing concrete, steel, plastics. In 2024 Poland’s Regional Directorate of State Forests in Kraków harvested 100,000 m3 from thinnings: 43% large assortments (furniture, flooring, sleepers), 44% pulpwood (particleboard, viscose, paper), 13% energy wood extending carbon storage via cascading use, especially furniture industry. Passive protection projects theoretical stock growth to 575−736 m3/ha by 2050 (1.9 Mt CO2/year uptake), but primeval references show decay phases reducing volumes 40−70% over 50−70 years; temperate deadwood releases 60−70% carbon in 10 years. For 170,000 ha, this forecasts ~60 Mt CO2 emissions (2050−2075), excluding soil losses. Harvesting emissions (15−25 L diesel/m3, ~5400 t CO2/100,000 m3) plus temporary soil declines (5−15%, recovering 20−30 years) remain lower; unmanaged stands face equivalent disturbances without regeneration boost. Domestic harvest cessation triggers ‘leakage’ – exploitation shifts to lower−standard regions−increasing global emissions. oland demonstrates integrative viability: 0.66 million ha beech (7.1% cover), mean age 61 years, rotation 100−120 years, 2023 increment 63.2 million m3 exceeding 40 million m3 harvest by 36%. Regulated thinnings sustain high growth phases, FSC−certified biodiversity (protected zones, riparian buffers), and substitution benefits while matching German stocks landscape−wide. Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) proves superior, integrating silviculture, substitution, fossil displacement, and avoiding leakage to meet EU durable reservoir standards. Harvest suspension risks greenwashing biogenic stocks as fossil offsets; Poland’s model offers empirical Central European alternative aligning forestry with genuine climate goals.
Pacura et al. (Wed,) studied this question.