Statistical Analysis and Simulation of Smart Charging for Electric Vehicles in the Swedish Market

As the adoption of electric vehicles increases, the impact of vehicle charging on electricity grids becomes a growing concern. The aim of this study is to investigate how smart charging can improve grid stability by not overloading substations, and reduce charging costs in the Swedish electricity market, with a focus on seasonal variations and differences between weekdays and weekends. Monte Carlo simulations based on driving patterns and electricity price data for Sweden's SE3 region, are used to compare uncontrolled and smart charging strategies. Results show that uncontrolled charging leads to frequent load spikes, especially during winter, occasionally exceeding the subscribed distribution grid transformer capacity. In contrast, smart charging effectively shifts charging to hours of low demand, typically at night, keeping total loads within capacity limits across all seasons and reducing electricity costs for consumers. These findings highlight the potential of smart charging to support both grid reliability and economic efficiency in future energy systems.