Comparative prospective life cycle assessment of decarbonization strategies in the Saudi cement industry

Decarbonizing the cement sector is essential for meeting global climate targets and maintaining industry competitiveness. As one of the world's largest cement producers, Saudi Arabia has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. Given the technological heterogeneity in Saudi cement facilities, plant-level data are crucial for accurately assessing feasible decarbonization pathways. This study applied prospective life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental performance of clinker and blended cement production in Saudi Arabia from 2020 to 2060 under three scenarios: business-as-usual, ambitious, and more ambitious. By integrating plant-specific data with regional projections from the IMAGE integrated assessment model, our model indicated potential GHG reductions of up to 80% by 2060 at the cement level in the more ambitious scenario relative to 2020. This reduction was mainly driven by the adoption of efficient kilns equipped with carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), covering 50% of cement production; a 50% reduction in the clinker-to-cement ratio; full substitution of heavy fuel oil with natural gas, grid electricity, and biomass-rich fuels; and the implementation of waste heat recovery systems. Without CCS, GHG emissions dropped by 40%, requiring higher market penetration of blended cements, such as Portland pozzolanic and limestone-calcined clay cement (over 60%). Additionally, more than 90% use of alternative fuels, with biomass-rich ones representing over 20%, is estimated despite potential higher thermal demand and risks of acidification and eutrophication. • Prospective LCA assesses Saudi cement sector pathways through 2060 using plant data. • Tailored fuel mix and SCM scenarios reflect national decarbonization opportunities. • CCS enables up to 80% GHG cuts but raises toxicity, resource, and land impacts. • Blended cements like PPC and LC 3 are essential when CCS is not feasible. • Natural gas is the best current eco-economic fuel while TDF leads in the long term.