The Middle East in 2026 is undergoing a systemic transformation that cannot be fully explained by conventional narratives of religious conflict or isolated military escalation. This study introduces the Triple Reversal Model, a structural framework that analyzes simultaneous shifts across three interconnected layers: (1) the regional geopolitical system, (2) the internal strategic reprioritization of the United States, and (3) the fragmentation of Israel’s domestic power blocs. The model argues that the long‑standing Israel‑centric Middle East order is destabilizing due to the erosion of Israel’s deterrence posture, the United States’ move toward national‑interest‑driven strategic distance, and Israel’s internal political incoherence. By synthesizing these layers, the paper demonstrates how independent actions by Israel, Iran, and the United States have converged to accelerate the emergence of a more multipolar regional order. The findings suggest that the events of 2026 represent not merely a crisis but the early formation of a new Middle East operating system.
Yuji Marutani (Tue,) studied this question.
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